Three immediate challenges for Prime Minister Burnham

Within 48 hours of Keir Starmer’s resignation it was all but confirmed that Andy Burnham looks set to become the UK’s next Prime Minister after nominations for the Labour leadership close on 16 July.

Despite Al Carns and Darren Jones pushing their names to backbench colleagues, it seems sure Burnham will be the only candidate with enough support from MPs, constituency parties and affiliated trades unions to make it through.

A transfer of power would seem likely then for Friday 17 or Monday 20 July, with the Commons potentially held back from recess for a new government to be formed.

A new direction?

Even the most Burnham-supportive MPs are concerned about the speed at which he could arrive in Number 10 and the limited time to come up with a cohesive policy platform that appeals both to Labour members and the wider public.

Burnham inherits the same fiscal straitjacket that constrained his predecessor and the same turbulence in the global economy. His pledge to honour Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules may signal stability to the markets, but for most ordinary voters it could well sound like more of the same for “broken” public services.

The autumn budget therefore remains crunch time for Labour’s re-set: with ministerial appointments and party conference, an early make or break moment for his premiership. In terms of early policy themes, Burnham will likely draw heavily upon his record and reputation as Mayor of Greater Manchester:

• A stronger role for the state in guaranteeing public service delivery. Labour MPs and members want the party to move to the left and nationalisation for utilities could become a major policy debate. The state of the public finances may force a pragmatic approach with more government oversight, rather than direct control. But Burnham will make public services delivering better for working people a key pledge.
• Greater powers for decision-making at a local level. Keen to build on his Manchester base, English devolution will likely accelerate under Burnham, with more settlements akin to Greater Manchester’s 2023 ‘Trailblazer’ deal. But it won’t be straightforward. Whitehall will resist devolving tax and spend powers, and he’ll need to navigate a new era of competitive nationalism in Scotland and Wales, seeking to blame London for ever diminishing budgets.

As a career politician, Burnham understands well how to navigate Labour’s competing caucuses, the government machine and the (limited) levers of power available to him. Plenty of Starmer-era policies will no doubt end up re-packaged and bolstered by a few hero initiatives to give a lens of reinvention.

But his longevity will ultimately derive from how well he can communicate policy impact for ordinary voters, and the wider ministerial team around him will therefore be crucial.

Appointments

As well as good communicators, Burnham will need competent cabinet ministers to support delivery and take ownership with him of many of the serious challenges government faces. The shape of his administration in its first year will likely seek to blend views from across the party, and bind in rival factions, whilst rewarding key allies.

Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting and John Healey seem set for a return to cabinet, with Louise Haigh potentially making a comeback, having run the Makerfield by-election campaign. Recently installed new Prime Ministers have often cleared out their predecessor’s top team, but Burnham can ill afford to make powerful enemies on the backbenches on day one. Continuity for some senior ministers could well be as powerful a tool – at least for 12 months – as change.

The big question mark remains over Chancellor. Reeves is out, briefing to be happy to take on a more junior cabinet brief to stay in the fold. But candidates with credibility for Labour members and economic heft for the markets are few:

• Tipped early and a close ally of Burnham’s, Ed Miliband now appears a difficult choice. In a rare display of unity, both Unite and the City have raised concerns. Staying at DESNZ would be safe, or Ed could move to DBT as a consolation prize (“deputy Chancellor” in all but name).
• Wes Streeting is in the running, pitching himself as a moderate Blairite on board with de-privatisation, yet his economic credentials are weaker and his popularity with Labour’s members is limited. He will surely want a step up from Health though.
• Yvette Cooper is not a front runner but has been doing rounds with MPs to sure up a senior cabinet role and Labour MPs are keen to keep women in senior positions. She has the experience on Labour’s front bench, but a third great office of state in two years could look tokenistic.
• Another choice could be John Healey, giving him direct responsibility to clear up the gap in defence spending. His resignation boosted his popularity, and he’s seen as a safe pair of hands. Treasury officials would be very of poacher turned gamekeeper.

Other influencers to watch include:

• James Purnell, Blairite and former DWP & DCMS Secretary, expected to become Chief of Staff
• Josh Simons, the former Makerfield MP and Burnham loyalist who could well join the new No10 team
• Kevin Lee, his longtime ally and Director of Greater Manchester Office
• Miatta Fahnbulleh MP, who has been leading policy development
• Peer Sue Gray, sacked former No10 Chief of Staff, who has been briefing Burnham on government process

A snap general election?

Even with a poll bounce, it’s unlikely Burnham will go to the country upon taking office and the earliest date he might contemplate is May 2027.

That said, the risk of triggering a volatile, surprise short campaign and losing Labour’s majority to Reform when the country is highly divided will feel too significant and May 2028 could be a more serious prospect. That would only leave two budgets and one King’s Speech to radically overhaul Labour’s appeal to voters.

Dangling the prospect of a snap election if backbenchers don’t play ball may help focus minds and halt rebellions though, especially when so many Labour MPs are on small majorities. Burnham won’t have much time to restore confidence in Labour and placing Reform on the perpetual backfoot could help open up space for some quick policy wins.

But snap elections are dangerous and voters’ memories are long. Gordon Brown never recovered from “bottling” an early election in 2007, and Theresa May from calling one in 2017.