A month on from vanquishing Reform in the Makerfield by-election, Andy Burnham walked into Downing Street yesterday as the UK’s seventh Prime Minister in the past decade. Accepting the King’s invitation to form a new government at lunchtime, by midnight he had most of a new look Cabinet in place, with familiar faces recycled into great offices of state, and reward for key loyalists bringing fresh talent to the top table.
New Cabinet
Burnham himself is the first Prime Minister elected on a Labour and Co-operative ticket and the dominant theme in this new administration is community, place and local power. His long-standing belief that government needs to be shaped by places beyond the capital is demonstrated by almost two-thirds of newly appointed Cabinet ministers representing seats in the north of England.
Shabana Mahmood’s tough stance on migration almost certainly guaranteed her leave to remain at the Home Office. John Healey’s principled resignation over defence spending – arguably the catalyst to Starmer’s demise – was rewarded with the Treasury. Burnham will hope that Healey’s experienced pair of hands as a former Treasury minister under Blair reassures the markets and balances No10’s reforming zeal.
Heeding warnings from the City and Unite, Burnham instead switched backroom kingmaker and former Labour leader Ed Miliband from Energy to the Foreign Affairs brief, a signal perhaps of a more balanced approach to Net Zero under new DESNZ Secretary of State Miatta Fahnbulleh. Wes Streeting was a surprise late appointment to Defence.
Meanwhile uber-loyalist Lou Haigh was appointed First Secretary of State, tasked with paving the way for Burnham’s new economic model. In the Commons, stalwart Anneliese Midgley was appointed Chief Whip, a move welcomed across Labour as a clear signal that Burnham intends to make good his desire to change the culture within Labour and end the inter-colleague briefing battles which plagued his predecessor.
Elsewhere though, the resemblance to Starmer’s administration is striking:
Cabinet departures were also revealing. Rachel Reeves, Darren Jones, Peter Kyle, Liz Kendall, Steve Reed and David Lammy were all central figures in the Starmer project. Each represented, in different ways, a political model built around fiscal discipline, Whitehall-led reform and institutional competence.
By contrast, Burnham’s team represents a new era of devolution, skills, regional growth and industrial strategy with a much stronger emphasis on locally led, people-centred public services with the state acting as a much more robust guarantor of fairness, accessibility and cost. Burnham was also keen to emphasise on the steps of No10 a new pre-eminence for UK-centred procurement and a more confident approach to the UK in the world.
Early tests
With the Commons already risen for summer recess, any sustained scrutiny is deferred to September, useful for Downing Street to command the summer news agenda and begin shaping a new narrative. Burnham’s first party conference as leader in September, the launch of the 10-year “Plan for Britain” and the budget in November will instead form a trio of crucial moments in the autumn.
The budget in particular will test whether new Chancellor John Healey can match Burnham’s rhetoric with the realities of Britain’s fiscal situation. Tax rises are widely anticipated to stay within fiscal rules, but the government may well face resistance across political divides to major increases, especially if they put further brakes on job creation or pressure on the cost of living. All eyes will be on gilt markets as they react to spending announcements over the summer, made in the absence of a latest round of OBR forecasts.
Internationally, strengthening ties with Europe will instead be the early priority, and Burnham and Miliband will be keen to get a new date in for the postponed EU-UK Summit. COP31 in November will be notable for demonstrating the new administration’s approach to the climate change agenda. There will also be a Coalition of the Willing summit in Ukraine in the autumn and the G20 at Trump’s Doral resort in Miami in December will be Burnham’s first major summit alongside the US president.
Impact on Conservatives and Reform
The Tories have seen a 5% average polling boost since January, bringing them roughly level with Labour but consistently behind Reform. Burnham enters as the least unpopular leader in recent history, strongest in the North and London precisely where the Conservatives (and Badenoch in particular) are weakest.
Despite this, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s team will likely see a positive in his speech yesterday. Where Burnham’s policy agenda pulls Labour towards public control and re-industrialisation, he opens space for a distinct free-market, low-tax, pro-business offer that separates the Conservatives from both Labour and Reform. Badenoch has already pressed Burnham to rule out tax rises before his “July package” of announcements, anticipating other clear dividing lines likely on welfare, borrowing and energy.
For Reform, Burnham’s arrival brings a much higher degree of risk. Manchesterism’s economic populism is pitched at the same post-industrial, left-behind voters Reform has been drawing away from Labour. Any honeymoon that lifts Labour off its floor in the polls is likely to come at Reform’s expense, especially as the threat of a standards inquiry looms large, even after Farage potentially wins a by-election in Clacton in August.
