Reform’s surge in support is fuelled by nativism and scorn for the plans of the Lanyard Classes. Systemic distrust has created a whole new political playing field – and Labour and the Conservatives aren’t in the game.
In our latest report, we examine Reform’s surge in national polls and revisit immigration, the last wave’s most polarising topic, to understand its role in shaping support for Reform. We also explore Israel / Palestine – currently Britain’s most divisive topic.
Five key takeaways from this report include:
The latest wave of the MHP Polarisation Tracker, produced in partnership with Cambridge University’s Political Psychology Unit, reveals that distrust has created a new political landscape where Reform and the Greens are thriving.
For those who trust institutions, the big two institutional parties remain competitive, but the Greens and Reform are out-competing them among those who are Super Distrusters (approximately 30% of the population).
Since the 2024 General Election, Reform has gained more supporters from those who did not vote than from any other category, and have lost almost no voters of those who voted for Reform at the last election.
When identifying the best indicators of someone currently intending to vote for Reform, the overwhelming focus of these issues is immigration and how they perceive this is an existential issue for Britain’s future.
Reform supporters are strongly critical of the effects of immigration.
They are also much less trusting of the media than Conservatives or Labour supporters, and close to Green voters in their disdain.
Reform voters’ third defining feature is their fear of control. Supporters are more likely to believe that elites and officials cover up the truth or hide their intentions in order to mislead or control the population.
Reform have made gains in all three clusters that we analyse – Super Distrusters, Skeptical and Trusting – but have the most appeal to Super Distrusters, and the Skeptical cluster, with whom they now command pluralities.
Most voters lean to the right on social issues, and to the left on economic issues. Reform has made gains among economic-left-leaners, now outperforming Labour.
In total, Labour have lost 51% of their voters from 2024, with the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens roughly equal beneficiaries. With Reform now Labour’s major challenger, Labour-Reform switchers are particularly valuable, as they ‘count double’ in Labour-Reform head-to-head contests for seats.
Download the report to learn more.
If you want to discuss any aspect of the report or find out more about how to navigate the complex issues raised, please get in touch.
