Expectations are high amidst scrutiny and geopolitical tension ahead of the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November.  

The annual summit, which has become the focal point for global climate discussions, arrives for a third consecutive year in a host country that has raised eyebrows for its environmental and human rights records. While this context is likely to frame media reporting, anticipation is building towards progress on a host of critical issues. 

Climate finance takes centre stage 

The Azerbaijani hosts are steering this year’s agenda towards climate finance. Central to the discussions will be the “North-South Financial Mechanism,” a proposed levy on fossil fuel production designed to generate substantial funds for climate action. However, this initiative has met resistance, notably from the United States, bringing the ability to reach a meaningful global consensus into question. Others have expressed concerns that it could provide oil-producing countries with a green light to keep volumes high under the guise that sales would boost climate finance. 

Meanwhile, geopolitical dynamics are set to cast a significant shadow over the proceedings at COP29. The EU’s plans to challenge China to increase its contributions to climate finance for developing nations are a subplot that intertwines with broader tensions, as we have seen play out through the introduction of recent trade tariffs on Chinese EVs entering the bloc. These forces will undoubtedly shape the negotiations and outcomes of the summit. 

Fossil fuels face renewed scrutiny 

In a concerted effort to maintain momentum from COP28 in Dubai, pressure will be placed on nations to honour their promises to transition towards renewable energy sources and shift away from fossil fuels.  

This is despite Azerbaijan’s President defending his country’s fossil fuel-based economy earlier this year, saying that its “god-given” gas would be needed for decades to come, indicating a COP presidency that may struggle on its credibility to drive agreement.  

The other COP 

COP29 will continue the tradition of thematic days, covering a wide array of topics from the World Leaders Climate Action Summit at the start of the conference, to sector-specific discussions on food, agriculture and biodiversity.  

Despite the comprehensive agenda, there is an expectation of a smaller turnout in Baku. This is attributed to the logistical challenges of the location and the perceived status of this year’s COP as an ‘in-between’ event following the high-profile summit last year in Dubai. 

Anecdotal evidence suggests a reduced presence from both media and corporate entities. Practicalities such as transportation to the venue have been highlighted, with reports from one global news publication it is resorting to car rentals to travel to and from the conference venue. While the business pavilion will remain a lively feature, many organisations are opting for more limited delegations, which will likely result in fewer fringe events on the sidelines and a more subdued corporate presence overall. 

Interestingly, COP16, the biodiversity COP scheduled in Colombia weeks before the proceedings in Baku, continues to attract momentum. It will mark two years on from the landmark Global Biodiversity Framework, which aims to halt and reverse nature loss with key targets to be met by the end of the decade.  

There is a possibility that the event will be moved from Cali to Bogotá to accommodate higher-than-expected attendance, evidencing the growing importance of biodiversity in the climate conversation. 

What it means for earned communications 

As we look ahead to COP29, businesses and organisations should explore the opportunities to contribute to the debate around key issues, such as climate finance and fossil fuel investment. Media titles will be looking for expert voices who can break through the noise and provide nuanced perspectives on how the proposed measures can be implemented effectively and the role the private sector should play in making them a success. 

An appetite for visual storytelling showcasing the innovation and climate solutions that could benefit from new pools of capital agreed upon in Baku can also be expected. This is especially true for hard-to-abate sectors that drive a significant proportion of global greenhouse gas emissions, as 2030 targets become ever more pressing. 

While physical attendance at this year’s COP29 will be reduced, it will continue to serve as a major milestone in the global climate conversation and present opportunities for businesses to maintain their influence and presence.