With a massive majority, and a distracted clutch of opposition parties, you may be under the impression that Sir Keir Starmer can get away with doing pretty much whatever he likes. 

All that is about to change. 

From a Parliamentary perspective, short of Labour discipline imploding, there is nothing to stop Starmer from driving through his legislative agenda. So, the real battle will be fought in the press, in the scrutiny committees and through the external campaigns working on nudging, pressuring and downright whacking the government to bail on terrible ideas and amend flawed policies. 

His Majesty’s Official Opposition still, even with the current political arithmetic, has a vital role in holding the government to account. Right now, they are on the hunt for a new standard bearer – who the Conservatives ultimately select will shape not only the future of that party, but their role in galvanising critical voices in an attempt to frustrate an unacceptable Labour agenda. 

Choose poorly, and the Conservatives could be locked out of power for a very long time indeed.  

Choose wisely, and Sir Keir’s large but fragile majority may be brushed aside by a shift in public opinion. 

What does this mean for you? 

Whilst it’s crucial given their sheer size to plan for priority engagement with Labour, that will only take you so far. Many campaigns succeed with a not insignificant degree of pressure being applied from opposition advocates. 

There is time for Labour to rule the roost – a new Leader of the Opposition is likely to not get their feet properly under the table until the new year. From their appointment in early November until then, they’ll be getting to grips with reforming CCHQ and building relationships with the parliamentary party and press. 

After their 2025 re-launch, the Conservatives will be keen to gather as much support as possible from third parties keen on campaigning – and the sizeable Liberal Democrats should be actively courted as well. 

The Conservative leadership process

So, how do the Conservatives go about picking the next Leader of the Opposition? 

Six Conservative Members of Parliament are in the running: Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, Mel Stride and Tom Tugendhat. 

For the last month they have been touring the country, wooing party members, the press and the public – all in the hope of defining the mood music to influence their fellow parliamentarians.  

Stage one – the MPs narrow the field 

This afternoon, 4th September, the first ballot of the 121 Conservative MPs takes place. The candidate with the lowest level of support will be knocked out. Results should be declared at around 3.30pm.  

There is a second MP vote on 9th September, where the fifth placed candidate will be eliminated. 

That will leave us with the final four – and where the ‘fun’ really starts. At this stage of the process the total number of how many MPs support each candidate will be revealed, and the frantic horse-trading really begins. 

Stage two – Party Conference beauty parade

Some 12,000 Conservative members are expected to attend this year’s gathering in Birmingham, kicking off on 29th September. Those lucky finalists then need to survive the four days of late nights, endless speeches, interminable press shenanigans and endless grip-and-grins with the party faithful. It rightly puts them under the spotlight, testing for weakness and assessing strength. It’s here that the party membership, and public, will en masse get their first high-profile experience of the four – get their pitch wrong, and even a favoured candidate can lose their footing. Pitch it right, and this is the time for the underdog to gain momentum and leap up the list. 

Stage three – the final MP gauntlet

Post-party conference, and undoubtedly in need of rest and non-beige food, the candidates will instead be forced into the final MP votes on 9th and 10th October. There we’ll see the fourth and third placed removed from the competition leaving us a final two candidates for leader. 

Throughout, demonstrating popular support with polls, important party grandees and endorsements will be crucial– as will securing the backing of those defeated leadership contenders. 

Stage four – to the membership, and victory

The final two then embark on a mammoth tour of the country, attempting to charm as many of the estimated 150,000 Conservative Party members as possible. Voting opens soon after the final two are selected, and members have until 31st October to vote for their preferred candidate. 

The results are formally announced, and the new Leader of the Opposition appointed, on 2nd November. 

Meet the candidates

Robert Jenrick 

The reinvention of Robert Jenrick – from ‘Robert Generic’ when he was first elected, to being the darling of the Tory right – this sure-fire favourite to reach the final two of this Conservative leadership contest is a story of political survival. A stint in the Home Office as Immigration Minister which led to an abrupt break with Rishi Sunak has earned him his right-wing stripes, with Jenrick firmly positioning himself as the man who can stop the boats and win back voters from Reform. However, questions remain whether he has the heft to reunite all the fractious wings of this disparate political tribe – and whether he has the charisma to connect with the wider public or make it to Downing Street.  
Notable supporters: Lord David Frost, Esther McVey, Danny Kruger and Neil O’Brien  

Tom Tugendhat 

The great hope of the moderate rump of the party, former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat will have undoubted cache in certain sections of the Conservative family. A decorated veteran, with unexpected support from senior Brexiteers, may help him advance in the campaign. However, it may be the case that this leadership election, fresh off the back of such a bruising election result, has come too soon for Tugendhat’s moderate view of the world. Will his perceived One Nation status hinder him winning over the hearts and minds of his colleagues and Conservative members fearful of a Reform surge? 
Notable supporters: Steve Baker, Jake Berry, Damian Green 

Kemi Badenoch

Long spoken of as a future Tory leader since her barnstorming maiden speech in 2017, Kemi Badenoch sits alongside Robert Jenrick as one of the likelier candidates to make the final two. She has been subject of sustained briefing about her conduct as Business Secretary over the summer, which she has said is nothing but smears to destabilise her campaign. While her plain-speaking stance on culture war issues plays particularly well will the Conservative membership (and would certainly be uncomfortable for Keir Starmer) there is a fear this approach means Badenoch won’t be able to connect with Liberal Democrat facing seats the Conservatives lost in July.
Notable supporters: Claire Coutinho, Laura Trott, Chris Philp 

James Cleverly

The affable former Foreign and Home Secretary is a big beast in Tory circles. Cleverly has been a loyal supporter of Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. Along with Tugendhat, sources claim that Cleverly is one of the candidates Labour and the Lib Dems would least like to see win this contest. How reliable those sources are is up for debate. The question is whether, having been close to the heart of government when decision making started to go haywire, whether Cleverley can be an effective and fresh leader in opposition. 
Notable supporters: Ruth Davidson, Grant Shapps 

Priti Patel

A veritable grandee, Priti Patel has sought to position herself as a corrective force in this contest. Untainted by service in the Sunak government, and approved of by Nigel Farage, her big offer is to stop what she sees as the tendency of the Conservatives to “talk right, govern left”. Will her tough talking position have any credibility though? Her stint as Home Secretary saw little or no progress on small boats and Patel served proudly under Cameron, May and socially liberal Johnson. Some claim she has a chance of squeaking through the middle to unite a fractious membership – though this now feels unlikely.
Notable supporters: Wendy Morton, Alec Shelbrooke 

Mel Stride

The former Work and Pensions Secretary was frequently sent out during the election campaign to face the morning media round and earned plaudits for his combative style in face of dire headlines. However, the former Treasury Select Committee Chair and noted moderate is unlikely to go far in this contest due to a lack of profile, and lack of publicised support.
Notable supporters: George Freeman, Desmond Swayne, Mims Davies